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Australia versus New Zealand for the Supercars title

New Zealand has enjoyed a stranglehold on the Repco Supercars Championship since Scott McLaughlin took his maiden title in 2018, but Coca-Cola by Erebus Motorsport’s Brodie Kostecki can change this.

When McLaughlin left for IndyCar at the end of 2020, it was Red Bull Ampol Racing’s Shane van Gisbergen continuing New Zealand’s run at the top for the next two seasons. However, a lack of consistency this season has dented his title chances and Erebus’ quick handle of Gen3 has placed it as the favourite.

Kostecki holds a 131-point advantage entering the VAILO Adelaide 500 season finale, but what has been learnt from past experiences is this event can be taxing, tough and unpredictable.

To win the title in the opening race on Saturday, Kostecki must gap van Gisbergen by 20-points in Race 27.

If it’s turned the other way and van Gisbergen clinches both 250km races then Kostecki must finish eighth or better in each. A win adds 150-points, while eighth is worth 90 leaving just an 11-point gap between the two if this scenario was to play out.

A DNF for van Gisbergen in Race 27 ensures Kostecki wins his maiden Repco Supercars Championship title by just finishing. Even if he finishes last on Saturday, Kostecki’s lead is cut to 11 if van Gisbergen takes the win, but this is an unlikely scenario around the streets of Adelaide due to other retirements.

The scenario can dramatically change if Kostecki fails to finish as a win for van Gisbergen will elevate him into the championship lead by 19-points and even second provides the same result though at a reduced margin of seven.

If the duo do draw, a countback will fall in favour as it sits to Kostecki courtesy of six race wins to five and if van Gisbergen equals the victories, then the title will still be won by the Erebus Motorsport driver due to eight second placings to four.

Also in play is the Teams’ Championship where Erebus leads Triple Eight by 170-points and if the Coca-Cola squad extends its margin to 288, then it will take the title with one race remaining.

The Adelaide Parklands Street Circuit is one of the more challenging on the calendar and drama is always guaranteed.

Will van Gisbergen leave for NASCAR with his fourth Supercars title or is it Kostecki taking his maiden crown?